Hundreds of millions of consumers around the world are likely to upgrade to new iPhones with artificial intelligence capabilities in the coming months, pushing Apple Inc. toward a strong holiday season and potentially the start of a “super cycle.”
Apple is about to reach a historic turning point. According to the latest report from Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, approximately 300 million iPhones worldwide have been in use for more than four years, which means that Apple may be facing an unprecedented wave of phone replacement. This trend not only indicates that Apple is about to enter a “super cycle”, but may also push its market value to exceed the $4 trillion mark.
This prediction is not groundless. Based on a recent survey of Apple’s supply chain, Ives pointed out that with the launch of new iPhones, especially the iPhone 16 series with artificial intelligence (AI) functions, hundreds of millions of users around the world will consider upgrading their devices. The iPhone 16 not only has significant hardware upgrades, such as the second-generation 3nm A18 chip, which improves the performance of the CPU and GPU, but also introduces a number of new features, such as the capacitive sensing “camera control” button, New colors, camera upgrades, and more. More importantly, the price of the iPhone 16 has not increased and remains the same as the previous generation of mobile phones, which undoubtedly further stimulates consumers’ desire to change phones.
Apple officially launched the iPhone 16 series at its fall 2024 launch conference, including four models: basic, Plus, Pro and Pro Max. The launch of these new models not only attracted the attention of Apple fans around the world, but also triggered strong expectations in the market for Apple’s phone replacement wave. In particular, the iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max, with their powerful performance and innovative AI functions, have made these two models the focus of market attention.
Ives predicts that Apple could sell a record 240 million new iPhones or more in fiscal 2025 (ending September), driven primarily by an upgrade cycle driven by Apple Intelligence. Apple Intelligence is a big model launched by Apple, which aims to provide users with smarter and more personalized services. While this feature will be rolled out in phases and the initial version may lack some features, its potential in the future cannot be underestimated.
It is worth noting that China is one of Apple’s important markets. Ives estimates that 100 million iPhones in China are eligible for an upgrade this year. With the launch of new models such as the iPhone 16 and the addition of features such as Apple Intelligence, Apple is expected to trigger a new round of sales boom in the Chinese market and may bring in new partners.
This wave of phone replacement will not only have a positive impact on Apple’s performance, but may also drive the expansion of the entire smartphone market. According to IDC’s forecast, global smartphone shipments will increase by 5.8% year-on-year to 1.23 billion units in 2024, reversing the previous decline. Especially in the field of high-end smartphones, AI phones will contribute key growth. A report by market analysis firm Canalys also pointed out that the market share of AI mobile phones is expected to reach 16% in 2024, and by 2028, the market share of AI mobile phones will be as high as 54%, becoming a mainstream product.
To sum up, the 300 million iPhones in the world are over four years old, which undoubtedly provides Apple with an unprecedented opportunity for a replacement wave. With the launch of new models such as iPhone 16 and the addition of innovative features such as Apple Intelligence, Apple is expected to trigger a new round of sales boom in the global market and drive its market value to continue to rise. This super replacement trend will not only have a profound impact on the future development of Apple, but will also have a positive driving effect on the entire smartphone market.